The recent estimate that electricity consumption in Portugal generated approximately one million additional tons of CO₂ in 2025 is a warning sign that deserves serious and strategic reflection.
According to data from the environmental association ZERO, electricity consumption reached a new historic high of 53.1 TWh in 2025, about 3.2% above 2024, but this increase was not accompanied by an equivalent growth in production from renewable sources.
The main effect was an increase in production from natural gas thermal power plants to bridge the gap between demand and renewable production, with resulting CO₂ emissions rising by approximately one million additional tons compared to the previous year.
It is important to understand that this is not just a number; these additional emissions have a direct impact on Portugal’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, the European Union’s greenhouse gas reduction targets, and the national decarbonization strategy.
It is clear that the growth in electricity consumption is, to a large extent, a reflection of structural trends: electrification of transport, digitalization of the economy, and increased domestic and business demand. However, if this trend is not accompanied by a profound transformation of the energy generation matrix, it creates climatic and economic risks, given that:
- Renewables stagnated relative to consumption: despite maintaining a high absolute level, in 2025 the percentage of renewables in total consumption fell from approximately 70% to 68%.
- Dependence on fossil fuels persisted: primarily natural gas, to meet the clean production deficit.
Portugal has significant potential to generate clean energy; in fact, in recent years, renewables have exceeded 75% of production in certain months and have hit historic highs for integration into the electrical system. The problem is not a lack of solar, wind, or water resources, but rather the speed at which these capacities are being implemented and integrated in a resilient and efficient manner.
At a strategic level, despite initiatives such as the Environmental Fund’s E-Lar Program, which aims to promote the electrification of consumption and support families in replacing gas equipment with more efficient electric solutions, it is difficult not to question the strategic vision underlying recent public policies.
E-Lar is useful for the occasional electrification of household consumption, but it proves to be limited in terms of the proposed measures, by focusing exclusively on replacing appliances such as cooktops and electric water heaters (which are inefficient) without integrating essential structural interventions to improve the efficiency and the building envelope, such as thermal insulation, replacement of window frames, solar thermal systems, photovoltaics, or high-performance heat pumps—instruments that have a proven impact on decarbonization and consumption reduction. Furthermore, the transition abruptly ended more comprehensive programs under Component C13 – Energy Efficiency in Buildings, which supported global interventions in the envelope and technical systems of residential and service buildings, without an equivalent compensatory notice for tertiary buildings, leaving an important business sector without clearly defined support mechanisms.
Similarly, in the new Portugal 2030 call calendar, there is no solid reference, at least so far, to the effective implementation of the “Business Decarbonization” program, despite aid request registration phases having opened in early 2025 for future tenders of this type of support. This practical void translates into uncertainty that contrasts with the urgency that corporate decarbonization requires.
In short, the real discussion is not about the increase in consumption itself, but how we ensure that this growth is served by electricity that is increasingly clean, secure, and innovative.
Some of the strategic points that require concerted action are:
- Accelerating the expansion of renewables: simplifying administrative procedures and removing barriers that delay the installation of decentralized solar and wind farms.
- Strengthening grid infrastructure and regional interconnections to allow for more efficient integration of distributed renewable production.
- Enhancing flexibility and storage mechanisms that allow for better absorption of the variability of renewable sources.
- Integrated energy planning that aligns climate policies with security of supply and economic competitiveness objectives.
If Portugal genuinely wants to consolidate its role as one of the leading countries in the European Union in the transition to a decarbonized energy system, this is the moment to reaffirm and intensify public policy and private investment in this direction.
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