The COP30 Climate Summit brought, as always, diplomatic progress, predictable frustrations, and an increasingly urgent debate about the planet’s climate future. Although a continuity agreement toward meeting the Paris Agreement was reached, the reality is that the world still lacks a truly credible roadmap for the phase-out of fossil fuels.
The European Union once again played a decisive role in the negotiations, pushing for more ambitious targets and binding commitments. Despite resistance from several oil- and gas-dependent countries, the EU helped unlock the final agreement.
Politically, the good news is China’s commitment to the United Nations Climate Change Conference. It has emerged as an increasingly pragmatic and technological actor: not just making promises, but also showcasing products (renewables, technology, electric vehicles…). China wants to consolidate its position as a global provider of green solutions. At the same time, it maintains arguments about historical responsibilities and climate inequalities, insisting that wealthier countries bear more of the burden of the transition.
Meanwhile, the US, with its official absence, sends a worrying signal to other actors: if a historical greenhouse gas superpower withdraws or slows down institutional engagement, it can weaken global ambition.
From the negotiations, one question stands out: The goal of limiting the average global temperature increase to 1.5ºC by 2100 remains formally alive, but is it realistic?
If practically all mathematical models indicate that we are very close to reaching a 1.5ºC increase in average global temperature, why maintain this goal? The issue is not the linearity of the number, but rather the fact that this increase can hide much higher local variations. There are regions of the planet where, even if the global average rises by only 1.5ºC, the local temperature could increase by 3 or 4ºC, with catastrophic consequences for populations, fauna, and flora.
The impacts since the signing of the Paris Agreement have confirmed scientific predictions and can be seen in our “living laboratory”:
In Portugal:
- Increasingly severe summer wildfires;
- Recent storms, including extreme rainfall and tornadoes;
- Profound impacts on agriculture, water reserves, and infrastructure.
In Europe:
- Devastating floods in Central Europe;
- Prolonged droughts in the south of the continent.
In the world:
- Irreversible damage to marine ecosystems, including coral collapse;
- Indigenous communities and tribes in South America are severely affected by loss of territory, accelerated deforestation, and changing weather patterns that compromise traditional ways of life;
- Entire countries at risk of disappearing, such as Tuvalu, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru, due to rising sea levels;
- In Iran, a severe drought has lasted for 8 years, leading the government to consider the partial evacuation of the population of Tehran.
Climate change does not just cause heatwaves—it is associated with extreme events of multiple natures with environmental and social impacts.
Catastrophic visions did not help build credibility for the 1.5ºC reduction target by 2100—life on Earth will not end overnight. However, the challenge is extremely serious and already affects us, requiring continuous adaptation as the Earth seeks to reach a new equilibrium: migration, political and social instability, climate injustice, among other impacts.
Without a credible plan to reduce fossil fuel dependency, many goals risk becoming mere declarations of intent.
Discover Advanced Way’s strategic and operational solutions that help transform ambition into action.
